The Quiet Comeback

Last September, the U.S. recorded a weekly average of 35,074 new COVID-19 cases. This prompted significant action—schools switched to online learning, venues operated at limited capacity, and strict attendance restrictions were enforced. Fast forward to today, and our current average stands at a staggering 172,404. This figure represents nearly a fivefold increase in daily cases compared to last year, and it continues to rise.

On January 8, 2021, the U.S. witnessed a peak of 300,777 new cases. By mid-year, optimism grew as vaccination rates soared and case numbers dwindled. However, we overlooked an alarming trend. Just last week, we reported an all-time high of 301,138 new cases in a single day, surpassing the peak experienced during last year’s post-holiday surge. The fall season has only just begun.

The Idaho Department of Health and Wellness has declared a statewide crisis concerning hospital resources, citing that the influx of COVID-19 patients has overwhelmed current capabilities. Medical facilities are now in a position to ration care, which means certain patients may not receive priority for the limited resources available. Kootenai Health in Idaho has resorted to compensating traveling nurses at an astounding $250 per hour and has enlisted the support of a military medical unit. As stated by the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare Director, Dave Jeppesen, “The situation is dire.”

By September 13, all ICU beds in Anchorage, Alaska, were occupied. The National Guard has dispatched 400 soldiers to assist 25 hospitals in Kentucky with administrative tasks to free up more medical staff. In Texas, only 527 ICU beds remain available across all 596 hospitals, while states like South Carolina and Utah are also facing significant shortages. “Our hospitals are full,” remarked Carol Burrell, CEO of Northeast Georgia Health Systems.

The Vaccine Paradox

I can already anticipate the rebuttals: “But what about the vaccines?” Yes, the vaccines represent a monumental scientific milestone. They are not a miraculous solution but rather the result of decades of research on various coronaviruses, including those that cause the common cold, MERS, and SARS. Scientists decoded the DNA of SARS-CoV-2 within ten days of its first identification in Wuhan, China. Thanks to prior research, they understood the critical role of the viral spike S protein, which paved the way for targeted funding, clinical trials, and ultimately, the distribution of billions of vaccine doses. Kudos to science!

The promising aspect of these vaccines is their effectiveness. The rates of severe illness or death among vaccinated individuals are significantly lower than those who are unvaccinated. Currently, 54% of the U.S. population is fully vaccinated, and as of September 7, 75% have received at least one dose.

However, the grim reality is that death rates continue to climb, even as vaccination efforts progress. Last year at this time, the average number of daily COVID-related deaths in the U.S. stood at 853. As of earlier this week, this figure had risen to 1,360, and today, it is nearing 2,000. Despite the availability of vaccines, our average daily death toll has more than doubled since last fall. States heavily impacted by the virus reflect alarming trends: Virginia (from 15 to 28), Tennessee (from 33 to 59), South Carolina (from 31 to 69), Texas (from 117 to 297), Florida (from 118 to 363), Alabama (from 15 to 43), and Georgia (from 41 to 120) have all seen significant increases. In Idaho, the weekly average has surged sevenfold, from 3 to 22.

The statistics reveal a staggering truth: one in every 500 Americans has succumbed to COVID-19. This toll is not uniformly distributed; it profoundly impacts those over 65, as well as African Americans, Latinos, and Native Americans. These figures are not mere statistics—they represent lives lost daily. Can we truly return to life as we once knew it?

Packed Arenas and Their Risks

According to ESPN, over a million fans filled sixteen NFL stadiums during Week 1 of the season. College football also attracted large crowds, with Michigan hosting 108,000 fans and Alabama drawing 95,000. While attendance varies by school, the overall numbers are substantial. The total attendance for college football in 2019 was over 47 million.

However, the practice of crowding together in stadiums is ill-timed. Many venues do not mandate proof of vaccination, and recent masking guidelines have proven ineffective. The R0 rate of the Delta variant is twice that of previous strains, implying that a single infected person could spread the virus to up to five others. With a case fatality rate of 1.6%, if twenty COVID-positive fans enter a stadium, they could potentially infect 100 unvaccinated attendees, leading to a tragic outcome for one or two of them. This is not a matter of fate; it's a situation where individuals may suffer alone, gasping for breath after attending a football game.

A Historical Perspective

In just a few weeks, the number of COVID-19 deaths in Florida alone could surpass the total American military casualties during the ten-year Vietnam War (58,220). The societal upheaval caused by that war shaped our political and cultural landscape for generations. Yet, the current death toll from COVID-19 is over ten times greater, occurring in a fraction of the time, and we seem to shrug it off, opting instead to attend games.

To clarify, not all sports events are without restrictions; four NFL stadiums now require proof of vaccination. “If you want to attend the games, get vaccinated,” stated Mark Poloncarz, a county executive overseeing the Buffalo Bills stadium.

The Crisis in Schools

While the media may not cover minute-by-minute school updates, K-12 institutions have also resumed in-person operations this fall. The repercussions of COVID-19 are already evident. In Waverly City Schools, Ohio, the district had to revert to online instruction after 40% of students and staff were absent. In Beaufort County, South Carolina, half of the students are currently in quarantine. Tragically, two teachers have died from COVID-19 in Texas, and several others have succumbed in Florida and Tennessee. In less than two weeks, 15 staff members in Miami-Dade County have passed away from the virus. How do we explain to children where their teachers have gone?

Reports indicate that educators have died from COVID-19 in states like Missouri, Mississippi, South Carolina, Iowa, and Oklahoma, with a 34-year-old teacher recently losing their life in California. Since March 2020, New York City alone has lost 91 teachers and staff members due to the virus.

The Path Forward

With a population of 328 million in the U.S., 41 million individuals have already contracted COVID-19, equating to 12% of the population. Assuming these individuals possess some level of immunity, 75% of Americans have received at least one vaccine dose, totaling 246 million people. This results in approximately 287 million individuals with some immunity (41 million + 246 million). That leaves 41 million Americans who remain unvaccinated or uninfected. Given the current rate of 150,000 new infections daily, it would take 273 days for the virus to run through the remaining eligible population, projecting a decline around mid-June 2022.

Alternatively, if the remaining 41 million were to get vaccinated at the rate seen in April 2021 (over 3 million per day), it would take just 13 days for them to receive at least one dose, and over a month for full vaccination. This timeline aligns perfectly for a safe Halloween 2021, allowing for uninterrupted NFL and NCAA seasons.

However, we must confront the stark reality: nearly 2,000 individuals are currently dying from COVID-19 each day. By the time the remaining 41 million are vaccinated, an estimated 68,000 more Americans will have lost their lives. By June 2022, that number could rise to 546,000.

We are already surpassing the most challenging days witnessed last winter, yet our societal behaviors and interactions have accelerated as if the pandemic is a thing of the past. The numbers clearly indicate that the crisis is ongoing and remains deadly serious. The infection and death rates are as dire as ever, underscoring the Delta variant’s severity. The only viable solution to this crisis is for individuals to get vaccinated swiftly. If we can achieve this, we can anticipate safer, more normal holidays with loved ones. Otherwise, we face another year marked by shutdowns, economic hardship, and needless loss of life.

The first video, "Forget Donald Trump: Here's the Real National Emergency," discusses the critical issues overshadowing the political landscape, emphasizing the urgent need for action against the ongoing COVID-19 crisis.

The second video, "Why The US is in 42 Different National Emergencies," explores the multitude of ongoing challenges facing the nation, highlighting the necessity for collective awareness and response to the COVID-19 pandemic.